I will enter the trade on Friday prior to the next Friday’s expiration.
I will open a short Strangle that will be around 90% or better probability of profit. This is around 2 standard deviations. The credit will be less, but theoretically, the trade-off is less risky. Look for the strike price with the most open options and either trade that one or one strike further OTM just in case algos try to wipe out the strikes with the most options open.
I will close these trades at 90% profit or if it hits 150% loss. I will also close these trades prior to earnings because of how volatile these stocks can become. If it breaches one of the legs or hits 2.5 times the initial credit I will close for a loss. I may also choose to roll up and out.
The journal entries are found here.
|Date Entered||POP||IV||Expiration Date||Spread||Time Entered||UL Price @ Entry||Date / Time Exited||UL Price @ Exit||# Contracts||Credit Received||Exit Price||$ P/L||% P/L|
|7/10/2020||95||94.7||7/17/2020||410/640||10:34||523||7/16/2020 *out before earnings||527||1||3.00||2.16||84||28.00|
|Show Trade||7/20/2020||95||51||7/24/2020||440/545||9:51||496||7/23/2020 10:16||486||1||2.12||.22||190||89.62|
|Show Trade||7/24/2020||95||46.8||7/31/2020||420/540||9:59||480||7/30/2020 09:30||482||2||1.20||.15||210||87.50|