Archived: Winner Winner Chicken Dinner.
I will enter the trade on Thursday prior to Friday’s expiration.
I will open a short Iron Condor that will be around 90% or better probability of profit. This is around 2 standard deviations. The credit will be less, but theoretically, the trade-off is less risky. Look for the strike price with the most open options and either trade that one or one strike further OTM just in case algos try to wipe out the strikes with the most options open.
I will close these trades at 75% profit instead of letting them expire. Due to Iron Condors being harder to get out of I may exit one side of a spread at a time.
If the trade breaches one of the legs or hits 2.5 times the initial credit I will close for a loss. I may also choose to roll up and out.
|Date / Time Entered||Date / Time Exited||POP||IV||Spread||UL Price @ Entry||UL Price @ Exit||# Contracts||Credit Received||Exit Price||$ P/L||% P/L|
|Show Trade||2020-09-24 12:58||2020-09-25 10:22||90||35||2870/2880/3180/3190||3042||3014||3||.75||.20||165||73.33|
|Show Trade||2020-10-01 14:01||2020-10-02 15:30||91||34||3320/3330/3085/3095||3198||3135||3||.96||.10||258||89.583|
|Show Trade||2020-10-08 12:07||2020-10-09 15:53||94||28||3055/3065/3295/3305||3197||3284||4||.65||.25||160||61.538|
|Show Trade||2020-10-15 12:16||2020-10-16 11:05||92||32||3170/3180/3470/3480||3301||3371||4||.60||.15||180||75.000|
|Show Trade||2020-10-22 15:54||2020-10-23 12:15||90||28||3065/3075/3275/3285||3172||3160||4||.83||.20||252||75.904|
|Show Trade||2020-10-29 10:59||2020-10-30 09:41||90||97||2840/2850/3550/3560||3180||3103||4||.55||.07||192||87.273|